Trump 2.0 is cresting into its second year, and the Brookings DMV Monitor is tracking the impacts of federal spending and staffing cuts on the Washington region.
The first DMV monitor report explored how bleak D.C.’s unemployment crisis really was. This most recent report analyses local and domestic credit card spending to paint a picture of the region’s economic health. Brookings Fellow Tracy Hadden Loh runs the DMV Monitor and we talked with her about what the data shows and what’s next.
About the Report
The TLDR is that people are tightening their belts. According to the report, while overall spending has increased (in keeping with national trends), a closer look at trends within smaller jurisdictions shows a marked decrease in how much people are spending locally, which ultimately impacts revenue for the DMV.
How Much Are People Spending in DC?
Visitor spending accounts for about a third of the spending around D.C., so even small dips account for big revenue losses. From 2024 to 2025, visitor spending was down 2% in the District and 10% in Montgomery County, accounting for a loss of around $20 million. That’s a particularly impactful number considering total spending was around $100 million in 2024.
What’s Behind the Decline?
One key trend in the report is that aggregate household spending actually increased during the first half of 2025, then took a dive from June through September — right around the time troops were deployed to D.C.
The report shows that businesses like restaurants are taking the biggest hit so far, but the trend has not yet impacted the District’s ability to raise revenue to provide services. And since the data only goes through September — the month that saw the biggest drop in spending — it does not take into account the full impact of the government shutdown, where a larger decline is likely.
On the positive side, sales tax revenue has been outperforming projections from the District's chief financial officer.
What’s Next?
The team at Brookings Metro will continue to analyze data to get a fuller picture. Plus, Hadden Loh gave us a tease of the subject of the next report: The fact that the DMV now is the number one major metro market in the United States for the number of active home sale listings. “There are more homes for sale in the DMV right now than there are in Vegas,” Hadden Loh says. “I think it raises more questions than it answers. We want to know where people go when they're selling their home, and we've obtained a pretty unique data set from the US Postal Service that we hope is going to help us answer that question. That will be coming next time.”
